According to opinion polls, yes. But the situation is more complicated than that.
Most current opinion polls show that the Tisza party is currently the clear leader in Hungary. Péter Magyar’s party burst onto the political scene only last year, but it quickly ousted the former opposition parties and now confidently dominates the opposition camp.
It is worth knowing that Péter Magyar was previously a member of Fidesz himself and was married to former Minister of Justice Judit Varga, but at the beginning of last year he turned against the ruling party. Since then, his popularity has remained unbroken and more and more people believe that he will be Hungary’s next prime minister.
Péter Magyar is a fierce critic of the Orbán regime, supports the European Union, and envisions Hungary as a modern Western state.
Anyone browsing the internet and social media in Hungarian language, gets the impression that Tisza is currently much more popular than Fidesz, and the same is true when talking to city dwellers, especially in Budapest.
Some opinion polls already give Tisza a lead of more than 10 percent.
At the same time, it is important to treat both the numbers and our feelings with caution.
In October 2021, six months before the Hungarian parliamentary elections, pollsters said that Fidesz and the alliance of six opposition parties were neck and neck in term of popularity.
Later, several polls were published that predicted an opposition victory.
In contrast, in April 2022, Viktor Orbán’s party once again won a two-thirds majority in the Hungarian parliament, allowing it to begin its fourth term and continue transforming the country further in an illiberal direction.
The situation is undoubtedly different now than it was four years ago.
- The Hungarian economy is in worse shape.
- The Tisza Party is more unified than the previously fragmented opposition.
- Péter Magyar is a charismatic, one-man leader who learned his political techniques in Fidesz.
- There is no sign of a slowdown in the momentum of the Tisza Party.
- The younger generation has turned spectacularly against the Orbán system.
- Fidesz is clearly taking the challenge seriously, and the party sometimes appears to be at a loss.
- Some of Viktor Orbán’s magic has evaporated.
At the same time, I would not call this a foregone conclusion.
- Next April is still a long way off, and a lot can happen in Hungarian politics.
- Pollsters tend to underestimate Fidesz, whether for political or professional reasons.
- Fidesz remains popular among the elderly and those living in smaller villages.
- Opinion polls reflect party preferences, but Hungarian elections are decided in individual constituencies. Tisza has not yet announced the names of its local candidates, and it is unclear whether the former opposition parties will have local candidates. All of this could fundamentally change the balance of power.
- There are no signs of this happening yet, but Fidesz could interfere with the integrity of the elections, and this cannot be ruled out.
In Hungary, politicians, analysts, and voters talk a lot about the upcoming April elections and the odds, but there is much less talk about what will happen after that, what will happen if the TISZA party wins after all.
Well, this is an even more complicated question than the election odds.
Over the past 16 years, Viktor Orbán’s party has fundamentally transformed the country, placing its own people in government, the legislature, the state media, and at the helm of large state-owned companies, which would be a major challenge to change.
But even more of a headache is the fact that the oligarchs of the system are present as owners in key sectors such as telecommunications, energy, transportation, the military industry, construction, and banking.
One could spend a long time analyzing Péter Magyar’s possibilities, possible intentions, and motivations, as well as what Viktor Orbán might do after a possible election defeat. But this is definitely in the realm of speculation.
A. J.
